These crazy statists are just not gonna give up the COVID fear-mongering. These people, and the imbeciles that legitimize them, are complete lunatics. If the outrageous response to a bad flu season is the benchmark, what will happen to our Dumfukistan if we were confronted with an actual existensial crisis? I shudder to think.
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky goes off script with an emotional plea to the public about an “impending doom” following rise in COVID cases:
The #Covid vaccine may cause a deadly cytokene storm during subsequent coronavirus infections. The vaccine triggers the production of proteins by healthy cells during infections that trigger antibody response. Your healthy cells might be attacked by your own anti-bodies.
The predicted deaths is an estimate of weekly deaths based on linear regression of continuous time series and seasonality is derived by assigning each week to one of 13 periods. Actual data from 2015 through 2019 is used to determine the predicted totals. The excess deaths in 2020 through 12/5 stands at 310,000 according to this model.
When looking at COVID fatality data, 2 things jumped out at me. 1) correlation between state population density and deaths per capita and 2) the shape of the curve of fatalities. If you build a model that estimates per capita fatalities using pop density and weeks beyond peak fatality day, you get a very strong predictor (89% R^2).
The (linear) equation is: Est fatalities per million = -56 + 14 * (weeks from peak) + .92 * (Pop Density)
Where there are large differences between estimated and actual, one could hypothesize that they are an indication of where that state is in the “curve” or lifecycle of the outbreak.
States that are the farthest along in the curve (expect declining fatality counts) are as follows:
States that are the furthest behind (expect rising fatality counts) are as follows: