|The predicted deaths is an estimate of weekly deaths based on linear regression of continuous time series and seasonality is derived by assigning each week to one of 13 periods. Actual data from 2015 through 2019 is used to determine the predicted totals. |
The excess deaths in 2020 through 12/5 stands at 310,000 according to this model.
The numbers are gonna get really scary-looking before they get better. But perspective is important.
Annual global deaths attributable to influenza: 650,000
Annual global deaths attributable to tuberculosis: 1,600,000
Case fatality rate of influenza for confirmed cases = 10% (scary)
Here are some very rough GLOBAL COVID 19 Estimates:
In this model…
Total global confirmed cases reach 1 million on 4/2
Total global confirmed cases reach 5 million on 4/22
Total global confirmed cases reach 10 million on 5/16
Peak global fatality day: April 26, 18,000
Total global fatalities through April 9: 100k
Total global fatalities through May 6: 500k
Total global fatalities through June 30: 640k
A really bad flu season, but hardly an apocalypse.
Sanity check: Ignore the reported case numbers. The reported confirmed cases are essentially meaningless in that they are not random samplings of the population and are plagued with selection bias that indicates a grossly exaggerated fatality rate. in other words, the only people getting tested are the ones who are already ill. Mild or asymptomatic cases are almost entirely ignored in the calculations.
This has been shown in a CDC study of the H1N1 outbreak of 2009.
The study predicted “laboratory-confirmed case equaled 166 infections in reality”. In other words, the true infection rate of the H1N1 outbreak was 135 to 212 times the confirmed case rate! And the prediction of that infection factor was proven out by antibody tests of the population. Applying the low end of this factor range to the 3/26/2020 confirmed case total of 531,865 and 24,073 fatalities implies, by extension, a true case fatality rate of .03%, or 3 out of 1000, or 1/135th less than what is reported by our agenda-driven, sensationalist media.
But more testing is a paradox. The more cases, the more media hysteria. The more hysteria, the more panic. The more panic, the more outrageous assaults on civil liberties by bureaucrats. Increased testing will dramatically increase the case counts, but that, in turn, if it becomes more random rather than just testing sick people, will start to reduce the case fatality rate… eventually.
“Journalists” keep touting S. Korea as the model for handling the virus due to their very low fatality rate.
You want to know how they did it?
They created 500 testing locations and tested 250,000 people. Turns out, 3% of that somewhat random sample set was infected. In other words, they radically increased the “confirmed cases” number which caused the fatality rate to plummet. It also implied that the virus is already everywhere in South Korea.
Italy conducted a similar experiment.
Italy tested the entire town of Vo in early March and found 3% of the population was infected.
Notice a pattern, here?
The testing in Vo actually implies what I have suspected and suggested from the start, that 1) COVID 19 has already spread beyond any realistic possibility of containment, meaning the economic destruction we’re suffering is pointless political theater, and 2) the virus is largely benign and asymptomatic.
Good news, BTW: It looks like Italy may have topped.
We’ll see what happens.
I’ll predict that Big Brother will come riding in to take the credit for any “flattening of the curve”, when in reality, the home detention and economic shutdown was probably useless to stop the virus that has already infected 3% of the population.
When this is over, it’s probably going to look like a bad flu season. Trouble is, we will be in a terrible recession, or worse, with an added $3 trillion in U.S. federal debt, 10-15% unemployment, and 401k values cut in half.
Assuming a $6 trillion price tag to combat this virus, I wonder how many ventilators, medical care salaries, supplemental incomes for at risk individuals, and temporary hospitals could have been built for a tiny fraction of that cost?
Politics is not guided by rationality. It’s driven by fear.