The freedom demonstrations are growing. Toronto, Quebec, and now Canberra Australia, too. The state, applying their muscle (i.e. cops, media, and regulatory leverage) will try to lay siege to the demonstration. Cops are now blockading the blockades preventing supplies from getting in. Big media has blacked out the coverage and dutifully smeared the demonstrators. We saw regulatory flexing that convinced GoFraudMe to cut off their fund raising.
If the siege on the demonstration fails, I think its going to get very interesting.
When I game-theory this out, I begin to fear an inevitably violent end. I am operating under the core assumption that the ‘state’ cannot surrender, ever. By surrendering, the state de-legitimizes itself and the state’s very existence is entirely contingent upon its legitimacy.
The state cannot surrender. It must win. It’s very survival depends on it.
This is why FedGov, for instance, can never seem to end its foreign occupations. To do so is to delegitimize the very war they created and waged. When faced with certain defeat, the state attempts to withdraw without fanfare, slowly, quietly, imperceptibly. Eventually, the opposition senses the tide has turned definitively in its favor and they rush in to accelerate the victory (see Saigon and Afghanistan).
I think the canary in the coal mine, here, is the cops. Cops are the state’s muscle. They are the enforcers of the state’s will. They are in the midst of the demonstrations and have the best sense for who is going to win. Bound by paycheck allegiance, they are sell swords who will follow the orders of their paymasters without question, up until they sense the opposition will win. If that point is reached, it is all over for the government. When the cops stop enforcing the government’s will, the government will be neutered and completely humiliated. Many priests and acolytes of government will have to resign in total disgrace… the government itself will survive, after serving up a host of scapegoats.
What will it take to get the cops to switch sides? In America, my guess is it would take a FAILED attempt to disperse a demonstration with government-ordered violence. Let’s hope it doesn’t end like Tiananmen Square.