Vaccine Efficacy

In a free country, everyone must assess their own personal risk tolerance.

When considering vaccines in our unfree country, both the pro mandate and pro choice sides of the debate are reporting vaccine efficacy incorrectly. The correct way to evaluate it is thus:


If:

  1. Vaccination rates are 70%
  2. And infection hospitalization rate is 1%
  3. And 50% of hospitalizations have previously been vaccinated…

Then: the unvaxxed are 2.3 times more likely to be hospitalized, or you could say the vaccine is 57% effective (1 – .71%/1.67%).

But there’s more to it…

If hospitalizations are 1% of infections, then the true efficacy of the vaccine is 1% lower chance of hospitalizations vs no vaccination (1.67% – .71%).

Thus:

THE PROTECTION AFFORDED BY VACCINATION IS ABOUT A 1% REDUCED CHANCE OF HOSPITALIZATION!

In conclusion, if you advocate vaccine mandates based upon a 1% decrease in infection risk of hospitalization, you are drunk on authoritarian impulse.

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